Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 30.947966 34.528275 38.643596 43.795061 50.177281 57.976719 68.484548
2025-07-06 27.020966 31.863092 37.999107 46.639055 59.044318 77.273161 108.688037
2025-07-13 23.358256 28.530507 35.519527 46.216220 63.440165 93.196566 159.610477
2025-07-20 21.025218 26.398826 34.044673 46.606104 69.076021 114.918794 256.589792
2025-07-27 19.306386 24.780151 32.903414 47.082541 75.011394 142.613226 465.344212
2025-08-03 17.838277 23.284345 31.635586 46.944472 79.703142 173.202794 986.189844
2025-08-10 16.554550 21.888926 30.279515 46.275839 82.983509 205.331054 2995.375994
2025-08-17 15.626527 20.924056 29.469157 46.423968 88.351895 256.741587 NaN
2025-08-24 14.762295 19.964907 28.527506 46.082693 92.377807 315.405129 NaN
2025-08-31 13.975366 19.054356 27.552513 45.459827 95.406708 383.407965 NaN
2025-09-07 13.305368 18.275948 26.720297 44.978885 98.771442 477.690962 NaN
2025-09-14 12.745867 17.634258 26.063826 44.765388 103.080386 626.253046 NaN
2025-09-21 12.126622 16.859006 25.102211 43.715747 104.138667 766.246907 NaN
2025-09-28 11.967380 16.846931 25.572431 46.222357 121.263143 1914.721574 NaN
2025-10-05 11.493870 16.261243 24.876654 45.664319 125.010976 3376.429402 NaN
2025-10-12 11.149045 15.876251 24.538204 45.983741 133.614960 14686.407698 NaN
2025-10-19 10.843167 15.539035 24.261581 46.421687 143.695171 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 10.509376 15.131640 23.804997 46.274495 150.651498 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 10.157672 14.672938 23.205521 45.616090 154.099584 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.896903 14.364298 22.894139 45.758433 163.675613 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.616599 14.005590 22.449046 45.424110 169.805184 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.333946 13.629346 21.940062 44.815277 173.488710 NaN NaN
2025-11-30 9.079337 13.293417 21.495397 44.345241 178.296143 NaN NaN